摘要
以宁波港为例,首先选取宁波、杭州、温州3个腹地城市进行分析,以集装箱吞吐量和直接腹地综合工业总产值两个指标来研究港口与腹地经济的关系。综合工业总产值是由这3个城市的工业总产值的加权和计算而得,权重由相对引力模型确定。实证分析表明,港口与腹地经济之间存在着长期稳定的关系,且在10%的显著性水平下,它们互为格兰杰原因。脉冲响应分析表明,腹地经济的增长对港口的发展存在着不太明显的正向推动效应,而港口的发展则对腹地经济增长存在着很明显的正向拉动效应。最后根据研究结果对港口与腹地经济互动发展提出了政策建议。
The paper took Ningbo Port for example,at first,selecting Ningbo、Hangzhou、Wenzhou as three hinterland cities for analysing.container throughput and integrated total industrial output value of direct hinterland were used as two indicators in order to study the relationship between port and hinterland economy.Integrated total industrial output value was calculated by summing weighted total industrial output value of the three cities,while the weight was determined by the relative gravity model.The empirical analysis indicated that there was a long-term stable relationship between the port and its hinterland economy.Moreover,at the 10% level of signifiance level,they＇re each other’s Granger cause.Impulse response analysis showed that there was a less obvious positive promoting effect for the growth of hinterland economy to the development of the port,while there was a very obvious positive pulling effect for the development of the port to the growth of hinterland economy.Following with the main conclusions of the paper.At last,basing on the laws that the findings of the arctile revealed,we gave some policy recommendations on interaction between port and hinterland economic.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第7期1133-1137,共5页
Economic Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:70673048)资助
关键词
腹地经济
综合工业总产值
相对引力模型
脉冲响应分析
hinterland economy
integrated total industrial output value
relative gravity model
impulse response analysis
