摘要
本文尝试利用现代国民经济核算方法研究明代GDP及其构成。利用历史文献提供的数据,并借鉴前人定量研究的成果,我们整理和估算了1402—1626年的明代主要经济变量,进而对明代经济进行总体描述,并和工业革命前的英国经济相比较。主要结论如下：明代整体经济增长不快,年均GDP增长率为0.29%;总经济规模有所增长,人均年收入没有明显变化,维持在平均6公石（391公斤）小麦上下;以1990年美元计值的人均收入平均为230美元,最高的年份也不到280美元;农业占GDP比重平均为88%,手工业和商业最高时也没有突破20%;政府税收与GDP之比为3%到9%,平均为5%,明中叶后军费开支占中央政府支出的60%到90%;年均积累率低估值为5.3%,高估值为9%。
We estimate GDP and its composition of China＇s Ming dynasty by using methods of modern national income accounting. Using data provided by historical documents, we calculate the major economic variables between 1402 and 1626 and compare our findings with those of the British economy before the Industrial Revolution. Major conclusions are： GDP grew slowly in the Ming dynasty with the GDP growing at an average rate of 0.29 % per an num; GDP per capita did not change significantly stabilizing at the level of 6 gongdan （around 391 kg） wheat per capita; measured by the purchasing power of the 1990 dollar, Ming dynasty＇s per-capita GDP was 230 dollars on average, and the highest level was below 280 dollars; Agriculture＇s share in GDP was 88%, and handcrafts and commerce never exceeded the ceiling of 20% of GDP; the share of government revenue in GDP fluctuated between 3% and 9% with military expenditure accounting for 60% to 90% of central government＇s total expenditure; finally, the national savings were between 5.3 % and 9 % of GDP.
出处
《经济学（季刊）》
2010年第2期787-828,共42页
China Economic Quarterly
