摘要
本研究分析PRECIS区域气候模式系统构建的中国区域高分辨率(50km×50km)SRES气候变化情景下内蒙古自治区年均温度和降水量的变化趋势,并用伊万诺夫湿润度指数作为草地地理分布的划分依据,模拟了气候变化情景下内蒙古温性草原分布的空间变化格局。未来气候变化使内蒙古自治区的年均温度普遍升高,A2情景下的升高幅度大于B2情景;年均降水量在东北部地区和中部偏东南地区下降,在西部地区上升,全区平均降水量有所下降,且B2情景的下降幅度大于A2情景。在未来温度普遍升高、降水量西南部增加显著而东北部减少的气候变化背景下,内蒙古温性草原的总面积有所增加。其中内蒙古草甸草原的南北边界都有北移趋势,但面积将有所减少,到本世纪末,A2、B2两种情景下草甸草原分别可能减少6.4%和8.5%。而典型草原和荒漠草原则分别向北部和西部扩张,面积都有增加趋势,到本世纪末两种情景下典型草原面积可能会分别增加22.8%和16.1%,荒漠草原面积增幅更明显,可能会分别增加48.1%和36.5%。
More than 60% area of Inner Mongolia is covered by natural grasslands,which are sensitive to global climate change.Increased temperature and variations in precipitation would impact the grassland distribution.The spatial changes of a variety of temperate grasslands under high resolution climate change scenarios were first investigated in this study.Based on high resolution （50 km×50 km） Chinese regional climate change scenarios simulated by Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies （PRECIS） under A2 and B2 emission scenarios,mean annual temperature and precipitation during the period of the year 2011-2040,2041-2070 and 2071-2100 in Inner Mongolia were examined in detail.Spatial distributions of the temperate grassland types were generally divided in terms of the Ivanov moisture index in such three periods.Results indicated that the mean annual temperature would increase in the whole region of Inner Mongolia as the same distribution pattern of base year.By the end of the 21^st century,the mean annual temperature of Inner Mongolia would increase by 6.3 ℃ and 1.9℃ under A2 and B2 scenarios,respectively.However,the changes in precipitation in Inner Mongolia were found to be more complex than that of temperature.The mean annual precipitation of Inner Mongolia would decrease greatly at the beginning of the 21^st century,and would increase gradually from the mid of this century.The precipitation in the northeast of Inner Mongolia and in the southeast part of middle Inner Mongolia would decline,while it would increase significantly over the west of Inner Mongolia.Therefore,the climate would become warmer and drier in the east part of Inner Mongolia but warmer and wetter in the west part.Future climate change would exert a strong impact on the temperate grassland distribution.The area of the temperate grassland in Inner Mongolia would expand gradually under future climate change scenarios.By the end of the 21st century,the area of the temperate grassland would increase by 18.5% and 12.4% under A2 and B2
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第6期1111-1119,共9页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40775062
30800142
30590381)
