摘要
在历史旱涝记载资料可靠性检验的基础上,重建了湖北省3个区域近500年来的干湿气候变化序列,并比较分析了各区域干湿气候变化的趋势特征、准周期性及跃变现象。结果表明：在3个区域中,鄂东区1570~1770、1890~1950年两个时段偏湿,1470~1520、1790~1830年则偏干;鄂北区偏湿时期主要在1470~1530、1710~1750、1850~1910年三个时段,1470~1530、1770~1830年则偏干;鄂西南区有1550~1610、1650~1710、1830~1890、1930~1990年4个主要偏湿时期,而无明显的偏干时段。运用功率谱和小波分析对3个干湿序列研究后发现,3个区域干湿变化具有多个气象周期,区域间周期类型差异显著,但50~70年左右的周期在3个区域上均表现突出;采用滑动t检验方法辨识干湿气候跃变现象,在＂世纪尺度＂和30年尺度上检测到各区域干湿变化存在多个跃变事件,且同一跃变事件对不同区域向干（或向湿）影响的趋势相同。
The reconstruction of long series climate with annual resolution is an objective proposed by the IGBP-PAGES.Historical records on drought/flood are an important data source for reconstructing historical climate series.There are abundant and sequential drought/flood records in the Chinese historic documents.This research employed 6 regional drought/flood series within Hubei Province,which were derived from Collection of Historical Records on Climate in Hubei Province during Past 500 Years and covered a period from 1470 to 2000.By classification analysis of the 6 regional drought/flood series,they were classified into 3 categories which individually represented eastern,northern and southwestern regions of Hubei Province.After testing validity of the reconstructed series,we analyzed regional dry/wet variability,cycles and abrupt changes.The results showed that on multiple decades scale 1570~1770 and 1890~1950 were wet episodes and 1470~1520 and 1790~1830 were dry episodes in eastern region;1470~1530,1710~1750 and 1850~1910 were three wet episodes and 1470~1530 and 1770~1830 were two dry episodes in northern region;1550~1610,1650~1710,1830~1890 and 1930~1990 were four wet episodes and there were no obvious dry episodes in southwestern region.The spectrum analysis and wavelet analysis illustrated that the dry/wet variations of each region were featured by several significant cycles spanning from 3~4 years to 250 years.Moreover,the three regions were commonly controlled by 50~70 years cycle.Running T-test illustrated that on centurial scale 2,4 and 5 abrupt changes occurred individually in southwestern,northern and eastern regions while on 30-year scale 5,4 and 7 abrupt changes occurred individually in southwestern,northern and eastern regions.The abrupt changes simultaneously occurring in three or any two regions had the same trends;the abrupt changes from dry to wet in 1822 occurred in all of the three regions.
出处
《地理研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第6期1045-1055,共11页
Geographical Research
基金
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-315-4)
国家科技支撑计划重大项目(2007BAC03A01)
湖北省高等学校优秀中青年科技创新团队资助计划项目(T200708)
湖北省自然科学基金资助项目(2006BAB15B02)
关键词
干湿序列
气候变化
湖北省
recent 500 years
dry/wet series
climate change
Hubei Province
