摘要
通过对广东旱涝及冻灾史料的整理分析,采用相关分析、波谱分析等方法对历史时期广东旱涝灾害发生规律及其与厄尔尼诺事件、太阳活动的可能关系进行探讨。分析认为:1)从历史时期看,广东的湿润指数与其旱涝灾害的发生密切相关,寒冷指数越高(气温越低),旱涝灾害的发生越频繁。2)厄尔尼诺事件对广东整体旱涝灾害影响不大。3)在不同的历史时期,各指标序列具有相同或相似的周期。结合已有的研究认为,太阳辐射对气候的驱动可能是产生上述相同或相似周期的根本原因。4)对湿润指数的多尺度分析表明,自2000(±5)年广东地区开始进入偏旱期,偏旱状况将一直持续到2040(±5)年。从120 a尺度看,本世纪广东将处于偏涝阶段,预计2040(±5)年后将有较大强度的偏涝期出现,而且在未来几十甚至百年内旱涝变化幅度有增大的趋势。
Based on the historical records in Guangdong during the history period, the series of the drought and flood disasters, the moist index and the cold index are set up in this paper and these series are analyzed by the correlative analysis, the wavelet analysis and the power spectrum analysis. From the analyses,some conclusions are drew as follows： 1）The dry - wet situations in Guangdong are closely correlate to the drought and flood disasters and the cold index has remarkable influences on the drought and flood disaster in Guangdoug. 2）The E1 Nino events have little influence on the drought and flood disasters in Guangdong from the viewpoint of the historical course. 3）The dry- wet index and the cold index are not same in different historical periods of the drought and flood disasters and some series have the same or similar periods during the historical period. Some other studies show that solar activity may be the prime reason that result in the above situation.At the same time,ENSO event,monsoon （especially the East Asia monsoon） activity and the human activity may also have some influences to the periods of the climatic changes in Guangdoug. 4）Guangdoug will be in the waterloggiug period in the 21st century from the viewpoint of the 120 a period. But as a whole the whole province will be in the dry period before 2040（ ± 5）A. D. though some small waterloggiug period will also exist,and after that great waterlogged disasters maybe take place in Guangdoug.
出处
《地理与地理信息科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第5期75-79,共5页
Geography and Geo-Information Science
基金
广东省自然科学基金资助项目(031522)
教育部霍英东基金资助项目(91021)
关键词
广东
早涝灾害
厄尔尼诺
太阳活动
小波分析
功率谱分析
Guangdong
drought and flood disasters
E1 Nino
solar activity
wavelet analysis
power spectrum analysis
