摘要
有效灌溉面积是衡量区域粮食安全的重要指标,对于保障我国粮食生产与安全具有重要意义。通过对影响有效灌溉面积发展的影响因素分析,发现其发展过程主要经历3个阶段即起步期、发展期和成熟期,而这一过程恰好符合Logistic模型曲线趋势。根据齐齐哈尔地区1999-2006年有效灌溉面积建立了Logistic模型,并对其进行预测,在2016年该地区有效灌溉面积43.720万hm2,接近灌溉上限值43.763万hm2。因此,需要采取一定措施,促使影响有效灌溉面积发展的有利因子占主导地位,使得齐齐哈尔地区有效灌溉面积发展进入下一个新的循环。
Effective irrigated land area is an important for regional food security. It is of great significance for the protection of China＇s food production and security. The paper analyzed factors of the development of effective irrigated land area. The results showed that development process mainly goes through three sta- ges of start, development and maturity period. Its development process is in line with the trend curve of Logistic model. The paper established an effective irrigated land area Logistic model to forecast according to effective irrigated land area of Qiqihar city from 1999--2006. It would reach 4. 372×0^5 hm2, close to the upper limit of 4. 376 3×0^5 hm2 in 2016. By taking certain measures to develop dominant factors, ef- fective irrigated land area in Qiqihar city will go into the next new cycle.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第2期174-177,共4页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
黑龙江省科技攻关项目(GB06B106-7)
黑龙江大学青年基金(QL200824)
国家"十一五"科技支撑计划子课题(2009BADB3B02)
