摘要
针对某地区电网并入多个风电场的情况,论证分析了所有风电场总输出功率变化较单一风电场输出功率变化具有更好的规律性,引入风电总量与风电分配因子这2个概念,提出超短期风电场功率预测模型和求解方法。主要内容包括:风电总量、风电分配因子以及它们之间的随机关联规律;最小二乘支持向量机和卡尔曼滤波技术对风电总量和风电分配因子的自适应动态预测算法;基于关联规律间接实现风电场输出功率的超短期预测。通过实例验证,表明所提出的预测方法无论是在风电场功率预测精度、还是在预测误差分布范围方面都有明显改进。
Considering a regional grid with several wind farms integrated,the total wind power has a better regularity comparing to that of a single wind farm.An ultra-short-term wind power forecasting method is proposed based on the concepts of total wind power and distribution factor.The least-square support vector machine（LS-SVM） and Kalman filter are adopted respectively to forecast the total wind power and distribution factor recursively,so that the good regularity of total wind power can be restored.Case studies show that the method not only improves the forecasting accuracy but also reduces the distribution range of the forecasting errors.
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第7期90-94,共5页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50377021
50677036)~~
