摘要
现代国际油价有美国西得克萨斯中质原油(WTI)价格、欧洲布伦特(BRENT)油价及OPEC一揽子价格三大价格体系。根据国际原油价格变化的主控因素差异,可以将其划分为结构性转变、基本面趋势和波动3个部分。油价结构性转变与全球主要资源区和市场区的结构性调整有关,其直接诱因是世界原油供需体系的结构性紊乱,根源在于生产或市场的无序及对定价权的争夺,而结果均导致定价体系的嬗变。原油名义价格由供需矛盾、石油货币价格、边际成本和替代能源共同决定,这四者构成决定国际原油价格基本面趋势的主要因素。石油供需矛盾的日益突出和美元贬值必然导致油价上涨;而大型油公司高成本区的边际成本决定了未来国际油价基本面将围绕80美元/bbl波动;基础能源的垄断属性将可能最终使替代能源与目标能源的竞争关系转变为价格继承关系。波动情况主要受石油巨头或金融投机者操纵,他们通过原油供应链中段的多种实体原油仓储以及虚拟经济所衍生的多种投机活动达到操纵油价波动的目标,而WTI油价最容易受到地区市场因素的影响,从而为各种投机炒作和油价操纵提供了有利条件。一旦油价定价体系存在某种操纵,就可以通过分析操纵者的战略动机实现对油价趋势的合理判断。
The modern international oil price system consists of U.S.West Texas Intermediate crude oil （WTI） price,European Brent oil price and OPEC package price.By the difference in their controlling factors,the changes in international crude oil prices can be categorized into structural change,fundamental trend and fluctuations.The structural change in oil prices is mainly caused by the structural adjustments in the world＇s major resource areas and markets,directly triggered by the structural disorder in the global crude oil de- mand-supply system.The s^ructural change in oil prices stems from the disorder in production or in the mar- ket as well as the contention for pricing rights and will,without exception ,lead to a transmutation of the pricing system.The nominal price of crude oil is dictated by the demand-supply relationship,oil currency price,marginal cost and alternative energy sources combined.These are the main factors determining the funda- mental trends in international oil prices.The increasingly tight oil supply and weaker US Dollar will surely resuh in a rise in oil prices.The marginal costs of large oil companies in high-cost zones dictate the future international oil price fundamentals fluctuating around US$80/bbl.The monopolistic nature of basic energy may eventually convert the competing relationship between alternative energy sources and target energy sources to a price inheritance relationship.Price fluctuations are mainly manipulated by oil majors or financial speculators by means of various tangible crude oil storages in the midstream of the crude oil supply chain as well as various speculation derivatives of virtual economy.The WTI price is most susceptible to influence of regional market forces,providing favorable conditions for speculations and oil price manipulations.As long as there is certain manipulation in the oil pricing system ,we can make sound judgment of oil price trends by the strategic motives of the speculators. analyzing
出处
《中外能源》
CAS
2010年第4期12-17,共6页
Sino-Global Energy
关键词
国际油价
结构性转变
基本面趋势
波动
主控因素
WTI油价
international oil price
structural change
fundamental trend
fluctuation
main controlling factor
WTI
oil price
