摘要
中国"人口瓶颈"的消除并非是把人口稳定在15亿左右,而在于实施"人口负增长战略",分三阶段将人口总量降至3—4亿的小规模态。中国人口生育水平的下降既有其"实在空间"——"尺度空间"、"结构空间"、"政策空间"和"比较空间",又有其通过提高认知在较大程度上可消解的"观念空间"。具体而言,主要表现在以下几个方面:发展问题和环境问题在很大程度上是一个人口问题;可持续发展需要一个与环境保持低位均衡的"小人口",而非能为土地生产力支持的"适度人口";人口数量控制对年龄结构调整的优先性是层级—尺度理论的规定;市场并非万能的,而需要具有约束力的计划生育;出生人口性别比偏高并不必然与"政策挤压"形成的狭小"生育空间"相联系;稳定低生育水平不是"东稳西降",而必须"东西同降"。
The removal of the Chinese population bottleneck does not lie in keeping a population of 1.5 billion, but lies in carrying out ＂the strategy of negative increase in population＂, that is, reducing the population to a small size, with a population of 0. 3 to 0. 4 billion through three stages. The decrease in the Chinese fertility rate has both its substantial space： scale space,structure space,policy space and comparison space, and its conceptual space. The latter can be removed by improving people＇s recognition as follows. Firstly, the problem of development and environment is caused by the population in a large scale. Sustainable development does not call for ＂proper population＂, which is supported by land productive forces, but calls for ＂ small population＂, which can keep balance with environment. Secondly, the priority of the population control to the adjustment of age structure is a stipulation of Levels-Scales Theory. Thirdly, the market economy is not everything and the exercising birth control is necessary. The high birth sex ratio does not certainly connected with narrow ＂birth space＂caused by the policy. Finally, to keep a low birth level, we should not stabilize the population in the east while reducing the population in the west ,but reduce the population in both places.
出处
《浙江大学学报（人文社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第1期161-172,共12页
Journal of Zhejiang University:Humanities and Social Sciences
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(03BRK005)
关键词
人口瓶颈
人口负增长
人口目标
实在空间
观念空间
稳定低生育水平
东西同降
population bottleneck
negative increase in population
population target
substantialspace~ conceptual space
stabilize low birth level~ the decrease in the population inboth east and west
