摘要
人口问题本质上是个数量问题而非发展问题,而发展则在很大程度上为人口数量所左右。人口和经济的关系,应如维持"自动平衡"的鹰与鸡。发展的根本动力是民族主义和发展压力,发展的第一性是自然资源而非人力资本。污染转移是经济发展与环境保护"双赢"假象形成的根本原因,人与自然在物质上的"零和",则从根本上否定了环境与经济倒"U"型关系的存在;人口数量压力是环境退化的独立要素和首要原因。追求"人口红利"所需的人口不减或增长将使中国在人口数量的"泥潭"中陷得更深。"常量人口"不作用的"中性"观是统计相关对人口与经济、环境因果关系荫蔽而造成的一种幻觉。"分母效应"和"规模效应"使庞大规模的人口成为中国大国道路上的绊脚石,并使"粮食安全"问题长期困扰着中国;人少是美国成为全球最大谷物供应国和俄罗斯重新崛起的前提。"数量与结构并举"意味着16亿或更多人口灾难性的长期维持;减少人口数量是层级/尺度理论关于解决高层级/大尺度系统问题优先性的规定。
The issue of population is essentially related to quantity and not development. Development is mostly restricted by the population which makes the poor （environment） rich and the rich （environment） poor and controls people＇s life. Just like the hawk and the chick who keep the balance automatically, the relationship between the population and the development shows that against the rules of the ecology, the scale of population and economy is extending unceasingly, which will turn out to be highly balanced while repudiating the society and on the other hand destroying the complicated lives on earth. The basic motive forces of development are nationalism and the pressure of development related to it. As for development, natural resources are more fundamental and ultimate than human resources. The process of economy is a reverse ＂entropy process＂ in which material and energy are used up and the environment deteriorates. The basic reason for the false appearance of ＂bilateral winner＂ of both economic development and environmental protection is the pollution diversion. The relationship between man and nature concerning material is actually ＂nil drawer＂ and not bilateral winner ： man＇s gains are equal to nature ＇s losses. It denies the reversed ＂U＂ relationship between the environment and the economy once and for all. As an independent factor of the environment deteriorating, the pressure of the population turns out to be a ＂threshold density effect＂ on the living beings as a result of it. In order to get ＂population bonus＂, the population should be kept stable or on the rise. And thus, not only the pressure of the population and the employment will be more tensile, the environment will deteriorate, but also a ＂population bonus trap＂ will be set, which will make China sink deeper and deeper into a population mire. The population doesn＇t show up as a nlhlllty . It assumes the consumption and the economies of scale, the exhaust of the resource and the ejection of the pollution
出处
《浙江大学学报（人文社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2008年第3期14-25,共12页
Journal of Zhejiang University:Humanities and Social Sciences
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(03BRK005)
