摘要
应用气象观测资料和马铃薯晚疫病发生地点、面积、发展趋势等资料,采用数理统计方法,分析气候要素变化特征、马铃薯晚疫病发生发展及其与气象条件的关系。结果表明:研究区域降水量年际变化呈下降趋势,气温年际变化呈显著上升趋势,大部分区域相对湿度略增、平均风速略减、日照时数减少。研究区域马铃薯晚疫病历年发病面积比例呈显著上升趋势,发病面积比例以每年3.55%的速度增加。马铃薯晚疫病发病面积比例与5～10月马铃薯生长季相对湿度、降水量、气温等呈正相关,而与日照时数、平均风速呈负相关。降水减少是马铃薯晚疫病发生发展的不利因素,气温增高、相对湿度增加、平均风速减小、日照时数减少均是有利的因素。当可控条件一定时,气象条件是马铃薯晚疫病发生发展的主导因素。气候变化导致马铃薯晚疫病呈上升趋势。
Based on the data of potato Late blight observation and the meteorological data , the characteristics of climatic changes and characteristics of potato Late blight development and the relation with meteorological data had been analyzed with the method of statistics. The results showed that interannual change of precipitation takes on descendant trend and that interannual change of temperature takes on ascendant trend. It is found that intera- nnual change of relative humidity is on ascendant trend, the interannual change of sunshine duration and average wind velocity are on descendant trend at the gross regional. It is found that the potato Late blight display marked ascending trend, the tendency rate of percent of potato Late blight influenced field is3. 5437% ·a - 1. The percent of potato late blight influenced field showes positive correlation with relative humidity and precipitation and temperature, while it showed negative correlation with sunshine duration and average wind velocity in growth period of potato. The reduction of precipitation is unfavourable factors for potato late blight development , but the increased of temperature and relative humidity and the reduction of sunshine duration and average wind velocity are favourable factors for potato late blight development. The meteorological condition is the dominant element when the controlled condition is established. The climatic changes has brought about ascendant trend of the potato late blight.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第1期173-178,共6页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
科技部科研院所社会公益研究专项(编号:2004DIB5J192)
2008年度国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项"西北地区旱作农业对气候变暖的响应特征及其预警和应对技术研究"(GYHY200806021)
干旱气象科学研究基金项目(IAM200711)资助
关键词
气候变化
特征
马铃薯晚疫病
相关
影响
模型
climatic changes
characteristic
potato late blight
correlation
influence
model
