摘要
目的建立初治涂阳肺结核治愈后近期复发的预测模型。方法采用前瞻性追踪研究方法,对2005年1月1日—2006年12月31日广州市初治涂阳肺结核治愈停药的3 293例患者进行2年随访研究,从临床因素、社会因素探讨影响初治涂阳肺结核治愈后复发的相关因素,建立近期复发的logistic回归模型。结果初治涂阳肺结核治愈后细菌学复发率为4.6%。近期复发预测模型:logitP=-9.546+0.586X1+1.959X6+1.449X10+1.118X15+1.027X16+1.525X18+0.674X22+2.042X23,经评价预测效果较好。结论预测模型的建立为减少肺结核复发提供了科学循证依据,能为结核病疫情控制给予针对性指导。
Objective To establish a prediction model of short smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis. Methods This research term recurrence of cured initialwas a prospective longitudinal study. 3 293 cured initial-smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases from Jan. 2005 to Dec. 2006 from Guangzhou City were followed-up for 2 years. Influencing factors of recurrence of cured initialsmear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis were explored from clinical and social aspects and a logistic regression model for prediction were developed. Results The bacteriology recurrence rate is 4.6%. Short-term recurrence prediction model is logit P =- 9. 546 ＋ 0. 586X1 ＋ 1. 959X6 ＋ 1. 449X10 ＋ 1. 118X15 ＋ 1. 027X16 ＋ 1. 525X18 -＋0. 674X22 ＋ 2. 042X23 with good prediction results. Conclusions The prediction model provided a scientific evidence-based basis to reduce the recurrence of tuberculosis and a targeted instruction for the control of tuberculosis epidemic.
出处
《中国防痨杂志》
CAS
2010年第1期20-24,共5页
Chinese Journal of Antituberculosis
基金
广东省医学科研基金立项课题(编号A2008553)
广州市医药卫生科技一般引导项目课题(编号2007-YB-088)
关键词
结核
肺
复发
预测
tuberculosis, pulmonary
recurrence
forecasting
