摘要
从时间序列分析的基本原理和方法出发,结合建筑物变形监测的关键技术指标差异沉降量的实例分析,给出了时间序列数据平稳化处理、模型定阶的统计检验、模型参数估计以及预报分析的方法,建立的时间序列自回归模型拟合与预报精度较高,为建筑物的地基处理及运营安全提供可靠的决策依据。
In this paper, the basic principle and method of time series analysis are introduced. Combined with the case studying of different settlement amount, which is an important indicator in building deformation observation, the method for smooth processing of time series data, the statistical test of model setting, the methods of parameter estimation and forecasting analysis are given. It shows that time series AR model has higher fitting and forecasting precision, and can provide a reliable basis for decision making of building＇s foundation treatment and security operation.
出处
《工程勘察》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第1期73-76,共4页
Geotechnical Investigation & Surveying
关键词
时间序列
差异沉降
参数估计
预报分析
time series
different settlement
parameter estimation
forecasting analysis
