摘要
工程实践表明,基坑支护桩某时刻的水平位移实际上是与上一时刻相关的,且支护桩水平位移变化过程是渐进的增加过程。而时间序列分析法能有效的模拟、预测支护桩水平位移随时间的变化规律。因此从某支护桩水平监测位移入手,以时间序列模型实现为主线,展开了监测数据平稳性检验、模型定阶、模型参数估计、模型检验及预测等方面的研究,并编制了相应计算程序。计算分析结果认为:AR(3)模型能较准确反映支护桩水平位移的发展规律,在预测精度方面远优于统计回归分析,建议采用时间序列模型分析类似工程监测数据。
Numerous engineering experiences show that horizontal displacements of foundation pits supporting piles are associated with that before current.The horizontal displacements of supporting piles increase gradually as time goes.The changing law of horizontal displacement can be obtained by time series analysis method.This paper analyzed the spot horizontal displacements,and build time series analysis model.Based on this model,this paper discussed the stationarity test of monitoring data,adaptive ordering,parameter estimation,model checking and forecast,and a computetional program was compiled.The calculation result showed that the model AR(3) can agree well with the changing law of horizontal displacements,and has the higher forecast precision than statistical regression analysis.
出处
《施工技术》
CAS
北大核心
2010年第S1期632-635,共4页
Construction Technology
关键词
时间序列分析法
平稳性检验
模型定阶
参数估计
time series anylysis method
stationarity test
adaptive ordering
parameter estimation
