摘要
境外资本流向逆转,一直是威胁新兴市场经济体经济金融安全的突出因素。自2002—2007年,国际资本流动空前活跃,流入新兴市场经济体的资本快速增长,与此同时,中国也出现了境外短期资本大量涌入的现象。但2008年下半年以来,随着国际金融危机影响的不断加剧,包括新兴市场经济体不同程度地遭遇了资本撤离现象。在短期资本流向上,中国也已经由前几年的"不明来源"转变成了"不明去向"。究其原因,主要是金融危机下境外投资机构撤资回防、2008年下半年美元升值,以及全球金融危机影响下中国经济增长速度的明显回落。但随着全球金融市场逐渐企稳、人民币升值预期的重新高涨,以及中国经济的率先复苏,2009年第二季度开始,出现了境外短期资本重新"回流"中国的现象。"投机性资本"的大量涌入也许是下一轮大规模资本撤离的序幕,境外资本流向逆转是中国经济金融安全面临的重大威胁因素。为了有效地防范大量资本流向逆转,中国需要保持经济平稳增长,保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定,并实施审慎的资本管理。
The reversed foreign capital flows has been a threat factor in emerging market economies.From 2002 to2007,the inflowing capital had increased rapidly in the emerging market economies;at the same time,there was a sudden influx of short-term foreign capital into China.However,since the second half of 2008,with the ongoing international financial crisis intensified,including emerging market economies,to varied degrees,encountered the phenomenon of capital withdrawal.China has also progressed from 'unknown source' in the previous years to 'whereabouts unknown' in the short-term capital flows.The main reasons include capital withdrawing by foreign institutional investors,the appreciation of U.S.dollar in the second half of 2008,as well as China's economic growth rate drop under the influence of the global financial crisis.However,as the global financial market has stabilized,the re-appreciation of the RMB is expected to rise,as well as China's economy recovery,overseas short-term capitals begin to back China in the second quarter of 2009.The large-scale influx 'speculative capital' may be a prelude to the withdrawal of overseas capital flows reversal of economic and a major threat financial security of China.In order to effectively prevent massive capital flows reversed,China must maintain steady economic growth,keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable and implement prudent capital management.
出处
《社会科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第12期36-44,共9页
Journal of Social Sciences
基金
上海市哲学社会科学规划课题"境外短期资本流向逆转的风险防范"(项目批准号:2008FJB005)的阶段性成果
关键词
新兴市场经济体
资本流向逆转
短期资本
投机资本
Emerging market economies
Reversed capital flow
Short-term capital
Speculative capital
