摘要
采用降雨极值的皮尔逊-Ⅲ型分布模型,引入冯利华干旱模型,分析基于马尔可夫链的晴雨转化矩阵。并通过这些概率模型建立膨胀土路基在气候作用下的水毁灾害预测模型。计算分析结果表明,该计算模型为膨胀土路基的地理分布与气候耦合时的水毁预测提供了一种可扩展的算法,也可用于极端气候条件下的其他灾害预测。
The Pearson Type III distributing model was adopted which can imitate the daily rainfall extremum. The Feng Lihua＇ s drought model was introduced to evaluate the drought scale. The fine - rain translation matrix was established based on Markov Chain. It was established based on those probability modes that the mode fore-cast the water - destroyed disaster of expansive soil roadbed due to climate. The calculating anlysis indicates that this arithmetic is a expandable one which can calculate water - destroyed probability of the expansive soils roadbed when its geography distributing coupling with extreme climate and this arithmetic can also be used to forecast other disaster under extreme climate conditions.
出处
《铁道科学与工程学报》
CAS
CSCD
2009年第5期26-30,共5页
Journal of Railway Science and Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50808179
50678177)
仲恺农业工程学院引进优秀人才科研启动基金资助项目(G2360246)
湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(08JJ3092)
关键词
气候
膨胀土路基
水毁
预测
climate
expansive soil roadbed
water-destroyed
forecast
