摘要
简要介绍了Bayes方法在可靠性评估中的应用.分析了当选取共轭先验分布的情况下,先验信息对可靠性评估结果的作用强度以及对后验点估计和置信区间的影响.最后,针对Bayes方法在实际应用中的适用范围和有效性问题,设计了利用试验数据对先验信息进行相容性检验的方法.
In this paper,we first describe the Bayes method used in the reliability e-valuation. Then,by choosing the conjunctive prior distribution,we analysis the effect of prior information to the reliability evaluation result. Finally,to the usage domain and effectiveness of Bayes method,we develope a method which use the test data to examine the consistency of prior information.
出处
《系统工程》
CSCD
1998年第6期54-57,共4页
Systems Engineering
关键词
可靠性评估
先验信息
BAYES方法
Reliability Evaluation,Prior Information,Bayesian Methodology
