摘要
对电力设备可靠性的评估问题进行了研究。利用贝叶斯的条件概率理论 ,提出了在电力系统数据不足 ,且存在不定因素的情况下 ,基于概率的设备故障率预测方法 ,讨论了后验概率对先验概率的敏感性。同时还讨论了基于概率的故障率分析模型的建立。结果表明 。
A method that uses the Bayes’s theory to deal with some problems in failure rate prediction is discussed in this paper. This method is special for power plant system and equipment whose failure events are relatively rare database is often limited. The sensitivity of this method to different prior-probability was discussed, and modeling for failare rate analysis was discussed in this paper. This method is general and practical and can be used for on-line evaluation of power plant reliability.
出处
《现代电力》
2004年第6期11-14,共4页
Modern Electric Power
基金
华北电力大学博士学位教师科研基金
关键词
贝叶斯法则
故障率
可靠性
评估
Bayes’ rule
failure rate
reliability
evaluation