摘要
作为一种有效的政策分析工具,CGE模型已广泛应用于贸易、财税、收入分配、能源与环境等研究领域,但其在均衡结构、函数形式和参数确定等方面的强假设严重制约了模型的分析效力。因此,研究者试图引入随机性来解决上述问题。本文对随机CGE模型研究进行了综述,主要观点:第一,从作用上看,随机CGE模型可以解决目前CGE模型面临的均衡结构僵化、函数形式任意、参数设定单一性等三个问题;第二,从内容上看,随机CGE模型研究主要包括模型自由参数、方程和数据的随机性研究;第三,从研究层次看,随机CGE模型的理论研究者需要完善和统一研究内涵,并进一步拓展研究外延;应用研究者需要加强对模型的稳健性检验,从而提高结果的可信度;政策制定者需要科学的看待和采纳模型的模拟结果。
CGE model is an efficient instrument for policy analysis, and has been widely applied in the research fields in trade, finance, income distribution, energy and environment. However, it has been heavily affected in efficiency for its strict assumptions on the structure of equilibrium, the form of functions and the specification of parameters. And even, ＂a miss is as good as a mile＂. Therefore, researchers attempt to introduce some stochastic factors to overcome the barriers. By reviewing the existing studies on stochastic CGE model, this paper draws on the following conclusions： （1） Stochastic CGE can solve the problems which CGE model comes across; （2） The existing stochastic CGE model mainly concentrated on the stud- ies of the free parameters, equations and data; （3） Different people should distinguish primary and secondary. The theoretic researchers should improve and unify the existed content and methods, and extend the stochastic content further. The empirical researchers should enhance robust test of the model, and improve its credibility. The decision-makers should recognize and apply the simulated conclusions scientifically.
出处
《中国管理科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第5期183-192,共10页
Chinese Journal of Management Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70873052)
国家软科学研究计划项目(2009GXS5D109)
关键词
随机CGE模型
参数
政策分析
述评
stochastic CGE model
parameter
policy analysis
review
