摘要
灰色系统理论自提出以来便迅速得到推广并应用于各个领域,它是在少数据不确定性背景下处理数据、分析现象、建立模型并预测事物发展趋势。介绍了灰色系统理论在故障预测方面的应用,通过一个典型应用的实例阐述了灰色预测模型的理论基础及建模方法,并在此基础上分析了灰色预测理论在故障预测技术领域的应用现状及各自优势和缺陷。对其在装备系统故障预测技术领域的应用趋势进行了探讨。
Grey system theory has been spread rapidly and applied in all kinds of scientific field since it was put forward. It can deal with data and information, analyse the phenomena, build up its models and forecast the future development situation of the system under the background of the uncertainty in less data. At first, the application of GST （grey system theory） in the field of fault forecast was introduced. Then the theory base and the modelling method of grey forecast model were described by use of a typical application example. Based on this, the present application situation of grey forecast theory and its advantage and insufficiency were analysed. Finally, the future development tendency of its application in the field of weapon equipment system fault forecast was discussed .
出处
《火炮发射与控制学报》
北大核心
2009年第3期88-92,共5页
Journal of Gun Launch & Control
基金
中国国家博士后科学基金资助(20060401018)
重庆市自然科学基金资助(CSTC
2006BB2422)
关键词
数理统计学
灰色系统理论
灰预测
GM模型
故障预测
预测精度
mathematical statistics
grey system theory
grey forecast
GM model
fault prediction
forecast precision
