摘要
四川是我国西部地区经济大省,2000年以来,其成品油需求随着经济的发展而高速增长,消费弹性先升后降,消费强度逐年下降。"十二五"期间,预计全省成品油需求仍将保持较快增长,但增速将逐年降低,2015年成品油消费量或将超过1000万吨;需求柴汽比开始由升转降。从供应格局看,中国石油和中国石化分别是四川成品油市场的主、辅供应商,社会经营单位和地方炼厂起补充作用。从运输方式上看,主要依赖铁路和管道,公路和水路运输比例较小。为了提高未来的成品油供应安全程度,建议四川省积极转变经济增长方式,加强石油储备体系建设,加快铁路网和成品油分支管线网络建设,同时大力发展"油改气"与生物燃料等替代能源。
As a major economic province in the western region of China,Sichuan has experienced a rapid growth in product oil demand with the economic development,a consumption elasticity declining after rising and annually dropping consumption strength since 2000.It is estimated that Sichuan will witness a relatively rapid growth in the demand of product oil during the'12th Five-Year Plan'period but with a growth rate declined year by year,the consumption of product oil may exceed 10,000,000 tons by 2015 and the ratio of diesel-gasoline demand will enter a declining stage from a rising one.From the point of view of supply pattern,CNPC and CCPC are the major and auxiliary suppliers of product oil in Sichuan market while social operating units and local refineries play a role for complement.From the point of view of transportation mode,railway and pipeline are major transportation means, with a small proportion of road and waterway transport. To improve the security level of product oil supply in the future,it is suggested that Sichuan shall actively transform the mode of economic growth,enhance the construction of oil reserve system,accelerate the construction of railway network and product oil sub-branch network,and also make great efforts to develop the'oil-gas converting'technology and the alternative energies including biofuel.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2009年第9期66-70,共5页
International Petroleum Economics
