摘要
转轨后的中国基本养老保险制度未来是否具有充足的偿付能力,直接关系到社会保障制度的稳定性及持续性。文章通过建立基本养老保险基金收支预测精算模型,在三种模拟条件下,分别对其可持续运行能力进行测算及分析。研究显示:在增速放缓的情况下,基本养老保险在2038年左右出现收不抵支,此后收支逆差逐年加大,2042年以后自身筹资体系将难以维持。如果能够加大对职工工资收入的分配力度,则可以有效改善基本养老保险基金的收支状况,使得上述情况延迟发生。在经济景气乐观估计下,赤字规模有所减少。因此,积极推动宏观经济又快又好发展,让经济发展成果更多地惠及群众,加大财政补贴力度,提升产业结构等,都是养老保险制度可持续发展的有效措施。
The sustainability of social security system is due to the sufficient solvency of China＇s basic pension insurance system after the accomplishment of the transition. Based on the actuarial model, the paper analyzes the sustainable operation of China＇s basic pension funds. The results indicate that, under the slowing-down economic development, the income will not balance the expense in 2038, and the deficit will gradually widen, leading to the collapse of the financing system after 2042. If the wages hold higher increase rate, the situation can be improved. Under the optimistic estimation about the economy, the scale of the deficit can decrease. Therefore, measures such as the promotion of macro-economic development, the large increase in wage distribution and fiseal subsidies and the improvement of economic structure are beneficial to the sustainable development of basic pension insurance system.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第9期26-35,共10页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究项目
"211"三期项目的支持
关键词
基本养老保险
收入分配
可持续运行
政策模拟
basic pension fund
income distribution
sustainable operation
policy simulation
