摘要
本文针对人民币和韩圆分别考察了不完全关闭NDF、关闭NDF、不完全开放NDF和开放NDF背景下SPOT、DF和NDF市场之间的互动关系和信息流动特征,对不同开放背景下货币当局的政策效果和影响进行了实证研究。DCC-GARCH的研究结果表明:开放NDF市场会促进SPOT、DF和NDF三个市场之间的一体化程度,但同时也意味着波动的相关性大大提高,且NDF市场通常为波动来源,同时会在一定程度上降低央行干预的有效性。在DF市场尚不发达的情况下关闭NDF市场,可能会有利于DF市场的发展,减少NDF在汇率定价中的影响力。
This paper investigates the interrelation and information flows among currency spot, deliverable forward （DF） and non-deliverable forward （NDF） markets as well as the effects of central banks＇ intervention in the background of incompletely closing, closing, incompletely opening and opening NDF market respectively, taking RMB-Dollar and Won- Dollar exchange rates as empirical objects. Using the DCC-GARCH model, it finds that opening up NDF would significantly improve the integration of spot, DF and NDF markets as well as the volatility correlation. At the same time, with NDF market opened up, volatilities usually spill over from NDF to spot and DF markets and the effectiveness of central banks＇ intervention might be weakened. Closing NDF market when its DF market is not well developed might benefit the DF market and decrease the influence of NDF market on currency pricing.
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第6期79-89,共11页
Studies of International Finance
基金
自然科学基金应急项目“人民币外汇衍生产品的发展现状与结构设计”(70741012)
教育部人文社科一般项目“市场有效性、价格发现与定价权争夺:基于人民币即期汇率和远期汇率的研究”(07JA790077)
教育部“留学回国人员科研启动基金”(教外司留[2008]890号)的资助
