摘要
本文着力于探讨国内远期外汇市场的有效性及其价格发现功能,分别就美元兑人民币的境内外远期汇率与即期汇率构建基于汇率期限结构的VECM模型。实证检验中,境内外远期汇率都拒绝了市场有效性假说,两类汇率对即期人民币汇率的价格发现功能都不够强,但境外远期无本金交割汇率的价格所包含的即期汇率信息量仍然较境内远期汇率更多,其原因可从制度约束、境内外的外汇市场分割性、交易规模和市场活跃度、人民币国际化程度等方面来解释。
Externality theory has been questioned and criticized all along from its inception,for its vague key concept,wrong function orientation,and inability to solve realistic problems.If the functions of the theory are not to be remodeled,it would be substituted by the theories of transactional cost and contract.If the functions of the theory are oriented at revealing the objective existence of infringement and making the relations between equity and efficiency,and between government intervention and free market to achieve suboptimal or optimal equilibriums,the theory will gain significance both in solving practical problems and academic research.
出处
《当代经济科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第2期18-26,124,共9页
Modern Economic Science
