摘要
文章在现行户籍制度背景下,以"有序"提升中国城市化水平为目标,遵循实验经济学的研究框架,应用"随机服务系统理论"(排队论)展开了预期一个时期内城乡二元人口转化的数学建模,并进行了实验模拟与仿真,结果较为理想。该模型的建立为定量研究我国城市人口增长、为政府部门有序控制城市人口数量提供了理论依据和实施方法。同时也表明,应用随机服务系统理论定量研究人口、城市化及其他相关问题是一个值得重视的研究方向,且具有应用前景。
Under current household registration system, the paper builds up a mathematic model for studying dualistic population flow at an expected time by targeting on orderly urbanization and employing the stochastic service system theory （queuing theory）. Then it makes experimental simulation and obtains some sound results. The mathematic model provides theoretical and empirical evidence concerning the quantitative analysis on urban population growth and orderly control on urban population in China. We should pay more attention to applying the stochastic service system theory to quantitatively study population, urbanization and other related issues.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第6期131-143,共13页
Journal of Finance and Economics
关键词
户籍制度
二元人口流动
有序城市化
排队论
实验经济学
household registration system
dualistic population flow
orderly urbanization
queuing theory
experimental economics
