摘要
本文运用基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数与方差分解法,考察了我国1982～2006年期间我国生产性服务贸易开放与五类制造业国际竞争力之间的长期动态影响特征。冲击响应分析结构表明,一方面,我国生产性服务贸易开放程度的提高是促使各部门制造业国际竞争力水平不断提高的重要原因;另一方面,我国制造业国际竞争力的提高对于生产性服务贸易开放也具有重要的反馈促进作用,但后者具有一定的滞后效应。方差分解结果显示,我国生产性服务贸易开放是解释制造业国际竞争力的重要变量;同时,制造业部门国际竞争力水平提升的预测方差对解释我国生产性服务贸易开放度也有不同程度的贡献作用。
Using the Impulse response function and variance decomposition based on VAR model,the paper analyzes the dynamic effect in the long-run between the international competitiveness of 5 types of manufacture industries and the opening-up of producer service trade during the period 1982～2006 in China.On the one hand,the impulse response function shows that the increased opening-up of producer service trade promotes the competitiveness of different manufacture industries.On the other hand,the improvement of manufacture competitiveness also can increase the level of opening-up of producer service trade,but the later has lag effect to some extent.Variance decomposition shows that the opening-up of producer service trade plays an important role in the improvement of competitiveness of manufacture industries.Meanwhile,the prediction variance of the level of international competitiveness of different manufacture industries also can explain the level of opeing-up of producer service trade to a certain extent.
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第5期52-58,共7页
World Economy Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金《我国服务业开放度及效应研究》(05CJY027)的阶段性研究成果
