摘要
失业问题是我国当前和今后相当一个时期最突出的经济和社会问题,货币政策应当在促进就业方面发挥更好的作用。货币供应量是货币政策体系中重要的中介指标,货币政策能否有效地影响就业目标,可以通过分析货币供应量与失业率之间的关系得到量化说明。本文以此为立足点,通过构建基于全部OECD国家的年度面板数据回归模型、部分OECD发达国家季度面板数据的LSDV模型讨论失业率与货币供给之间的关系。分析发现两者在统计上存在显著的"U"型非线性关系,在未达到最优货币供给上限时货币供给能够降低失业,但超过界限后则会加重失业。分析结果说明,以货币政策解决失业问题是可行的,关键在于对货币供应操作的正确把握。
Unemployment is and will be one of the most serious economic and social problems in China. And monetary policy should and must take an active part in promoting employment. Money supply is an important mediate target in monetary policy system, and whether the monetary policy can affect unemployment can be quantified through the empirical relation between money supply and unemployment rate. Based on this, the paper discusses the relationship between unemployment rate and money supply by constructing panel data regression model with OECD annual data and LSDV model with quarterly panel data from some developed countries of OECD. The paper finds out that the relationship is a statistically significant U shaped non-linearity and there exists an optimal upper bound for the money supply. Within the bound, more supply of money can promote employment. Once the bound is exceeded, the reverse will happen. The empirical results show that it is feasible to use monetary policy to bring down unemployment, and the important point is the accurate operations of money supply.
出处
《上海金融》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第5期37-40,共4页
Shanghai Finance
关键词
货币政策目标
失业率
货币供应量
面板数据
非线性
Objective of Monetary Policy
Unemployment Rate
Money Supply
Panel Data
Non-linearity
