摘要
基于Logistic方程建立模拟港口增长的演化模型,并采用最小二乘数法对模型的参数进行估计。借助美、英、中3国的港口历史数据检验上述关系后,利用本模型拟合广州、上海、青岛、天津、大连等港口的增长过程,并进行趋势预测。预测结果表明:5个港口基本上均处于线性增长时期,现阶段普遍呈现高速增长,预计在2040—2060年将会达到1个极限值,即吞吐量约为6亿～15亿t;在港口规划中,要适度把握港口建设规模,避免工业化结束后可能出现的港口资源浪费等问题。
The evolution model is set up to simulate the ports growth on the basis of logistic equation, and least square method is used to estimate the parameters. After the relationship described above is tested with the aid of the historical data of ports in America, Britain and China, the growth course of Guangzhou, Shanghai, Qingdao, Tianjin and Dalian are fitted and their development trend is predicted. The conclusion shows the five ports are in the period of linear growth basically, and they grow at top speed at present. It is estimated that they will reach limit in 2040-- 2060, and the value is about 600 million--1 500 million tons. We must appropriately control the construction scale of ports to avoid the port resource waste after the end of industrialization process.
出处
《港工技术》
2009年第2期41-44,共4页
Port Engineering Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(40571045)
