摘要
文章提出了判断时间序列分析中的的AR(n)模型的平稳性和预测评价标准的方法.结合某基坑工程实例,对基坑监测中的水平位移进行建模预测。预测结果表明,一步预测算法的适用性强,具有较高的精度,适用于水平位移的预测。多步预测算法呈现直线式增长或下降,不适合预测水平位移。
The method of judging stationarity of n-order autoregressive model and criterion of evaluating prediction is proposed.Combination with the example of actual excavation engineering,the time series analysis for horizontal displacement of excavation monitor is founded and predicted.The results indicate that one-step prediction algorithm has excellent applicability and higher pricision for horizontal displacement.Multi-step prediction algorithm is not appropriate to horizontal displacement for linear growth or decline.
出处
《江苏建筑》
2009年第1期49-51,77,共4页
Jiangsu Construction
关键词
AR(n)模型
时间序列分析
预测
基坑监测
N-order autoregressive model
time series analysis
prediction
excavation monitor
