摘要
基于生态足迹方法计算了中国1953~2006年的人均能源足迹,利用经验模态分解（empirical mode decomposition,EMD）方法提取其增长的波动周期,利用因子分析方法探讨了不同时间尺度下驱动中国人均能源足迹增长的主要因子。结果发现：（1）53a来,中国人均能源足迹在波动中不断增长,人均能源足迹年增长率存在准4a、准13a、准17a和准27a4个主要波动周期;（2）对与中国能源足迹波动高度相关的37个影响因子在IMF1、IMF2、IMF33个主要尺度下的因子分析发现,人均GDP增长率、轻工业产值增长率、第二产业增长率、工业增长率、工业总产值增长率、社会消费品零售增长率、资本形成总额增长率、重工业产值增长率、第三产业增长率、建筑业增长率、交通运输仓储增长率等是3个尺度下共同的第1影响因子。据此,建议中国的能源政策制定者更应关注稳定经济增长、优化产业结构、调整国内石油开采、提高交通运输效益等。
The fluctuation periods of annual energy ecological footprint （EEF） growth rate in China are analyzed based on empirical mode decomposition （EMD） method. The main factors which influence the per capita EEF fluctuation in China are discussed with factor analysis method, too. The results show that： （ 1 ） China per capita EEF kept increasing with fluctuation in the past 53 years. The obvious undulation cycles of per capita EEF growth rate in China are 4a, 13a, 17a and 27a over last 53 years. （2） The common influenced factors which correlative coefficients of EEF are prominent are founded at their different timescales. The first common influenced factors are growth rate of per capita GDP, growth rate of light industry production value, growth rate of gross industrial output formation, growth rate of heavy construction production value, rate of secondary industry production value, value, growth rate of total industry production value, growth growth rate of industry product value, retail sales of consumer goods, growth growth rate of gross rate of tertiary industry production value, growth capital growth rate of rate of transport, storage, post and telecommunication services. The analysis findings from the common synthesized factors of 4a, 13a and 17a timescales of the thirty-seven factors suggest that China＇s energy policy-makers should attach more importance to stabilizing of economic growth, optimizing industrial structure, regulating domestic petroleum exploitation, and improving transportation efficiency, etc
出处
《生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第2期758-767,共10页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(40871083)
国家"211"二期工程重大资助项目
关键词
能源足迹
经验模态分解
因子分析
中国
energy ecological footprint （EEF）
empirical mode decomposition （EMD）
factor analysis
China
