摘要
利用1960―2006年共47年广西88个气象测站逐日降雨量资料,分析了广西汛期暴雨站次、日数等降水特征及其变化趋势和可能的成因,并通过相关分析研究南海夏季风建立期与广西汛期暴雨日数、洪涝站次、受灾面积等的关系。结果表明,南海夏季风建立期与广西汛期暴雨总日数等降水特征相关显著,当南海夏季风建立偏早(晚)时,广西汛期暴雨日数偏多(少),发生洪涝的可能性增大(减少),并且这种相关关系在近22年来有增强的趋势。
In order to raise the ability of forecasting rainstorm and flood in the rainy seasons （from April to September） and to provide a decision reference for flood control and disaster reduction work, some rainstorm characteristics including frequency, day number, space-time distribution, tendency and approximate formation cause, are analyzed by using the daily rainfall records during 1960-2006 at the 88 meteorological stations in Guangxi province. The correlation analysis method was used to reveal the relationships between the onset time of SCSSM and the monthly rainfall, seasonal precipitation, rainstorm and flood during rainy season in Guangxi. Results indicate that： （1） on the whole, there is higher occurrence frequency and bigger day number of rainstorm in the east area than in the west area of Guangxi, as well as in coastal region than in the inland area; rainstorms concentrate in the main flood season, i.e. June to August; there exists a linear additional trend of these parameters in the period of 1960-2006, and it has been enhanced in recent 22 years; （2） the onset time of SCSSM is closely correlated with the occurrence frequency and day number of rainstorm, the flood disaster area and population, but has weak relationship to rainfall in flood season or economy loss derived from flood; in cases that the onset time of SCSSM is early, Guangxi endures more rainstorms, asymmetric rainwater, and floods; but in late cases, situation reverses; （3） though the onset time of SCSSM has little help when forecasting the month or season precipitation, it is a good indicator for forecasting the rainstorm and flood, and it is a worthy reference for flood control decision over Guangxi.
出处
《热带地理》
北大核心
2009年第1期16-19,25,共5页
Tropical Geography
基金
广西自然科学基金(桂科自0728074)
关键词
汛期暴雨
相关分析
南海夏季风建立
广西
rainstorm in flood season
correlation analysis
onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon
Guangxi
