摘要
本研究利用1970-2006年数据检验了石油价格冲击对日本经济增长的短期与长期效应,发现日本的实际GDP、原油和成品油进口量、原油实际价格以及日元对美元名义汇率之间存在协整关系;基于误差修正模型的Granger(格兰杰)非因果关系检验显示,原油实际价格波动是日本经济增长的G ranger原因,但其短期效应为负而长期效应则为正;原油与成品油进口量对日本经济有着的长期影响也方向各异。经验性证据表明,日本的经济增长存在着成本推动的内生技术进步机制。
This study tests short - run and long - run effects of oil price shocks on Japan＇s economic growth using time series data ranging from 1970 to 2006. An equilibrium relationship of cointegration is identified among the variables of Japan＇s real GDP, quantity of crude oil and petroleum products ,imports, real prices of crude oil, and nominal Yen/Dollar rate of exchange. Granger non - causality tests based on vector error correction models indicate that in short - run, the fuluctuation of real crude oil the growth rate of Japanese real GDP; in longrun, however, the effect is prices negatively Granger cause significantly positive. Moreover, the effects of crude oil and petroleum products imports are different in the long - run. The empirical evidences shed a new light on the existence of a cost driven mechanism of endogenous technological progress in Japan＇s economy growth.
出处
《现代日本经济》
CSSCI
2009年第1期1-6,共6页
Contemporary Economy OF Japan
基金
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"中日韩循环经济发展研究"(2006JDXM100)
