摘要
基于生产和消费视角,对人均GDP和单位GDP的CO2排放之间的内在关系进行了实证分析。对1990—2004年44个国家的人均GDP与生产型和消费型的单位GDP的CO2排放进行面板数据的单位根检验和协整分析,在此基础上,对CO2环境库茨涅兹曲线(EKC)进行模拟。结果显示:无论是从生产视角还是从消费视角,单位GDP的CO2排放量都具有显著的倒"U"形状,符合环境库茨涅兹曲线特征。但对于多数发展中国家,消费型单位GDP的CO2排放量总是低于生产型单位GDP的CO2排放量,表明多数发展中国家在国际贸易中存在着内涵CO2排放的净出口,这对从生产角度核算国家温室气体排放体系提出了挑战。最后,分析了CO2环境库茨涅兹曲线对中国应对气候变化的启示。
Based on the perspectives of production and consumption, the intrinsic relationship between per capita GDP and CO2 emissions per unit GDP has been analyzed empirically The panel unit root and co-integration property of per capita GDP and CO2 emissions per unit GDP in 44 countries during 1990-2004 were firstly analyzed. It shows that the panel data is consistent with the general regression model. Then, the CO2 environmental Kuznets curves （EKC） were simulated, and the simulation results indicate that whether it is production- or consumption- based CO2 emission, the income-emission curve displays an inverted-U shape, which is conformed to the EKC. For most developing countries, the consumption-based CO2 emission is significantly lower than the production-based CO2 emission, indicating the net export of CO2 emission embodied in the international trade, which has brought great challenges to the statistic system of CO2 emissions only based on production perspective. Finally, based on the analysis of the CO2 EKC, some suggestions for climate change mitigation and adaptation in China were put forward.
出处
《气候变化研究进展》
CSCD
2008年第6期376-381,共6页
Climate Change Research
基金
环境保护部财政专项"温室气体排放统计核算与环境监管能力建设"资助
关键词
生产型CO2排放
消费型CO2排放
国际贸易
面板数据
环境库茨涅兹曲线
production-based CO2 emission
consumption-based CO2 emission
international trade
panel data
environmental Kuznets curve
