摘要
随着中国经济的快速发展,财政收入规模不断扩大。通过分析1978-2006年中国财政收入和国内总产值的变化趋势,运用VAR模型和因果关系检验理论对中国财政收入与经济增长之间的关系进行实证研究,结论表明:1978-2006年,中国财政收入冲击对GDP的作用较弱,GDP冲击对财政收入有较为显著的负向影响,且这种作用呈先上升又逐步下降的趋势,第10年对财政收入波动的贡献值为82.7%。
The high-speed growth of China＇s economy has resulted in the constant expansion of its fiscal revenue. This article analyzes the growing tendency of China＇s fiscal revenue and gross domestic product during 1976-2006 and conducts empirical study of the interrelation between fiscal revenue and economic growth with the help of VAR model and Granger causality approach.The conclusion is that during this period, the impact of the fiscal revenue on GDP is fairly weak while there is a distinct negative influence of GDP on fiscal revenue. Moreover, the influence follows a rise-decline tendency and the contribution ratio of GDP to fiscal revenue at the 10th year is 82.7%.
出处
《河北经贸大学学报》
2008年第6期5-9,共5页
Journal of Hebei University of Economics and Business
