摘要
土地利用/土地覆被变化研究中,驱动力的研究是一个重要方面。从地理学的角度入手,将耕地面积变化的驱动因子归为降水量、经济、人口、技术、政策等方面,得到定量度量各驱动因子影响的多元线性模型,并用路径分析方法探讨驱动因子与耕地面积变化以及各驱动因子之间的关系。结论主要是:税费负担的加重会迫使农民开垦更多的耕地,取消农业税有利于生态建设;人口压力使得耕地面积扩大,不利于退耕还林草,因此要注意控制当地的人口数量;提高种植业人均纯收入水平,有利于控制开垦面积;在各驱动因子中,技术因素和经济因素对耕地面积变化最具影响。
Driving force is one of the most important fields in study about LUCC. As the basis of PSR paradigm, the deep understanding of driving forces can make us know LUCC well. Although there are a series of studies about driving forces by using statistics methods, these methods can not yet explain causes and effects clearly. So a new method which can clearly give a geographical explanation is needed. The authors of this paper build a model based on differential calculus. According to the great work of mathematicians, a equation of linear regression is gotten, and revised by weighted least square method （WLS）. WLS does not consider the effects between driving forces, which can make the result different. So path analysis is used in this study. Path analysis can distinguish the effects between driving forces and change of cultivated land. The authors believe that path analysis is good for discovering the multifunction of driving forces of arable land change. The method is compared with weighted least square method （WLS）, the result shows that path analysis has its advantage in situation when many factors have complex relationships. Driving forces can be taken into account as nature, economy, population, policy, technology and sense of worth. Every factor needs a suitable index. According to survey and data, rainfall stands for nature, rural per capita net income stands for economy, amount of people stands for population, earnings of policy stands for policy, energy consumption per unit of output value stands for technology, sense of worth is not considered in this study.The authors selected Guyuan county as a research subject and hoped the research could support the strategic decision. Pastoral and agricultural ecotone like Guyuan county is the hotspot in geography. Its frangibility and sensibility are two reasons why so many people consider it as an ideal research region. The results show that economic factor and technological factor are the two big roles changing acreage of arable land. And the more increases o
出处
《人文地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第5期17-21,共5页
Human Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40671006)
关键词
农牧交错带
耕地面积
驱动力
沽源县
pastoral and agricultural ecotone
cultivated land
driving force
guyuan county
