摘要
以常州市新北区为研究区域,探寻不同研究尺度下土地利用驱动力变化。分别从全局尺度和局部空间尺度,应用典型相关分析和空间网格化Logistic回归分析方法进行土地利用变化驱动力的定量化分析。结果表明:在全局尺度上,GDP变化量、社会固定资产投资额变化量、工业总产值变化量、农业总产值变化量、农村居民人均纯收入变化量、人均GDP变化量、总人口变化量和城镇化率变化量,是影响常州市新北区土地利用变化的主要因素。在局部空间尺度上,对常州市新北区土地利用变化造成显著影响的因子,主要包括距水系最近距离、距城镇最近距离、距省级以上公路最近距离和距城乡主干道最近距离。经济的快速发展和人口增长是常州市新北区土地利用变化的主要社会经济驱动力;交通可达性和中心城镇影响下的空间区位条件是影响土地利用变化的重要空间差异化因素。我国快速城镇化进程中区域土地利用变化受人口增长、经济发展、交通体系和政策等影响较大。
To analyze the driving force mechanism of the land use change at different scales during the rapid urbanization,the canonical correlation analysis and the spatial logistic regression analysis were used to study at the general scale and the local spatial scale.The result indicated that the variable quantity of GDP,the volume of investment in fixed assets,gross industrial output value,gross agricultural output value,average net rural per capita income,per capita GDP,total population,urbanization rate,were the main reasons for the land use change of the Xinbei District of Changzhou City at the general scale;the nearest distance of water system,towns,the provincial highway,the main road of urban and rural areas were the significant reasons for the land use change of the Xinbei District of Changzhou City at the local spatial scale.The fast development of economy and the rapid growth of population were the two main social and economic driving forces of land-use change in Xinbei District of Changzhou City;the transportation accessibility and the distance to the downtown were the two impact factors producing the spatial difference in land use change.In conclusion,the land use change was deeply affected by the population and economic growth,traffic systems and policies during the rapid urbanization in China.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第6期111-116,311,共6页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家自然科学基金"土地利用情景模拟模型研究"(40901183)
江苏省高校自然科学研究面上项目"基于主体的土地利用模拟模型研究"(12KJB170004)
关键词
土地利用变化
驱动力
尺度
常州市新北区
land use change
driving force
scale
Xinbei District of Changzhou City
