摘要
针对城市人口系统发展到一定阶段出现分岔现象的情况,考虑了分岔模型的稳定性和实际城市人口系统的扰动因素,依据分岔的稳定性理论,对城市人口系统在分岔点附近的演化方式进行分析研究;得出了城市人口系统在分岔点附近的定性演化轨迹;最后讨论了他们分别所对应的真实城市人口数量的变化特征.研究结果表明城市人口系统在分岔点附近的演化可归结为四种方式,且有可能存在人口数量突变以及演化滞后的特性。
As for the bifurcation phenomenon in a certain stage of urban population system＇s evolution,based on considering stability of bifurcation model and disturbing factors of real urban population system, we study the behavior of urban population system near the bifurcation point and abtain the evolution orbits of urban population system near the bifurcation point. Finally ,the characteristics of real urban population scale＇s change are discussed. The results show that the behavior of urban population system near the bifurcation point can be concluded to four models according to the variation of disturbing parameters. Furthermore, catasthophe and hysteresis can be happened in the evolution of urban population. Therefore, the evolving behavior of urban population system can be selected by the department of government through changing the disturbing parameters in urban population system near the bifurcation point.
出处
《太原科技大学学报》
2008年第5期402-406,共5页
Journal of Taiyuan University of Science and Technology
关键词
城市人口系统
稳定性
普适开折
分岔模型
urban population system, stability, universal unfolding, bifurcation model
