摘要
在城乡二元对比系数的基础上,设计了农业相对发展指数作为国际间可比的衡量各国城乡关系与二元结构强度的指标。运用这一指标,选择了41个国家,进行了1980～2004年的时间序列分析。结果显示:发达国家和大多数中等收入的国家,农业相对发展指数都是上升的,而低收入国家则大多数呈下降趋势。对数据的结果分析可做出以下推断:大多数发展中国家在工业化的前期都会出现农业相对指数下降,二元结构强度上升,城乡差距拉大的问题,但随着经济的发展,这一趋势会有所改变,逐渐上升,呈U形变化,而转折的临界点是在步入中等收入国家后。中国在2002年以前为低收入国家,因此,在1980～2002年,农业相对发展指数整体呈下降趋势,尽管2002年步入了中等收入国家但这一下降趋势并未抑制。
Based on urban-rural contrast coefficient, this paper designs agriculture relative index （ARI） as indicators measuring the intensity of urban-rural dual structure which is comparable with other countries. This paper calculates ARI of 41 countries from 1980 to 2004. The result shows that ARI in high-income countries and most middle-income countries are rising and yet it declines in most low-income countries. Analysis of the result canbe infer that ARI of most developing countries will decline in earlier stage of industrialization, so their dual economy structure will also aggravate and urban-rural gap willbe widen. With the development of economy, the tendency willbe changed and ARI present U-shape. The critical point is the time when a country becomes middle-income countries. China is a low-income country before 2002, so its ARI decline on the whole from 1980to2002. The tendency were not changed after 2002 although china had become middle-income country.
出处
《世界地理研究》
2008年第3期1-7,42,共8页
World Regional Studies
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目:我国东部沿海地区新农村建设模式与可持续发展途径研究(40635029)
关键词
城乡关系
农业相对发展指数
城乡协调发展
urban-rural relation
agriculture development index
urban-rural coordinated development
