摘要
对贵州省余庆县1993--2007年白背飞虱测报资料进行筛选分析，建立了第3代白背飞虱发生虫量预测模型（Ⅰ）：^y=430．2589＋76．3021x1＋3．0216x2＋0．0143x±Sy/12=1802．71；第3代低龄若虫盛发期预测模型（Ⅱ）：^y=4．6259十0．5238x±Sy/x=1．8046；第3代1龄若虫盛发期预测模型（Ⅲ）：^y=3．8994＋1．8346x±Sy=1．3506。利用其回归模型对第3代白背飞虱发生虫量和低龄若虫盛发期进行预测，方法简便，结果较为准确，可以提前10～15d作出预报。2008年6月应用模型进行预报，发生实况与预报结果相吻合。
The models for predicting amount of the third generation Sogatella furcifera and its occurrence period were established by analyzing forecast data of Sogatella furcifera in Yuqing county from 1993 to 2007. The results showed that the predicted model for amount of the third generation Sogatella furcifera was ^y=430. 2589＋76. 3021x1 ＋3. 0216x2 ＋0. 0143x3± Sy/12 =1802.71, the predicted model for prevailing stage of its nymphal with young instar was ^-Y=4. 6259＋0. 5238x±Sy/x = 1. 8046 and the predicted model for prevailing stage of its first-instar young nymphal was ^y= 3. 8994＋ 1. 8346x±Sy = 1. 3506. The actual occurrence situation accords with the forecast result by using the predicted models in Yuqing county in June, 2008.
出处
《贵州农业科学》
CAS
2008年第5期66-68,72,共4页
Guizhou Agricultural Sciences
基金
贵州省科技计划项目"贵州省主要农作物病虫害预测预报及防控技术研究"[黔科合字(2007)5003]
关键词
白背飞虱
发生虫量
发生期
预测模型
Sogatella furcifera
amount
occurrence period
predicted model
