摘要
本文从可能影响生产安全事故死亡人数的若干因素出发,采用主成分分析法提取关键的社会经济因素,剖析了事故死亡人数的内在影响机理,结合逐步回归法、时间序列分析模型、增长率反推死亡人数三种方法进行事故死亡人数的发展趋势预测。根据预测显示,四川生产安全事故死亡人数的总体趋势是"总量上升,相对指标下降"。
Based on several factors that may influence the death toll of production safety accident, principal component analysis was applied in the paper to extract the key socio-economic factors, and the internal mechanism of accident death toll was analyzed. Stepwise regression, ARMA and Growth backstepping death toll method were used to establish some models to forecast the development trend of the accident death toll. The results showed that the total trend of work safety of Sichuan Province was that the absolute indexes were rising and the relative indexes were declining.
出处
《中国安全生产科学技术》
CAS
2008年第4期4-8,共5页
Journal of Safety Science and Technology
