摘要
为了从宏观经济层面分析中国城镇劳动参与率迅速下降的深层原因,本文综合利用各人口、制度、宏观经济等时间序列数据,通过建立因子分析、多元回归分析、向量自回归等模型,从同期和滞后两个方面来研究宏观经济因素对劳动供给的影响。得出经济发展水平提高、经济制度变革、失业率上升、劳动力供给增加是中国劳动参与率降低的主要原因,在此基础上,提出相关有意义的结论。
Since China initiated its practice of market economy system,the labor participation rate diminished quickly in cities.In order to explore the root causes of this phenomenon at macroscopic economic level,the paper makes use of time series data containing information on population,employment and macro economy to examine the influence of macroeconomic factors on temporal and lagged labor supply,by employing factor analysis,regression analysis,vector auto-regression analysis.It concludes that the economic development level,the transition of economic system,unemployment rate and increase of labor supply are main determinants of the reduction of labor participation rate.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第3期11-19,共9页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
