摘要
利用系统动力学和分块预测方法,通过系统的反馈机制作用进行分析后建立模型,可以在缺乏基础数据、需水量有突变或工业用水组成及不均衡、定量表达式难以建立的情况下,对系统发展的整体水平进行预测,并保证一定的精确度。并通过实例进行应用,对区域水资源综合规划及对长期供水规划的制定提供了重要的参考依据。
By using the system dynamic analysis and the block prediction method, forecasting model was constructed by passing the feedback mechanism of system. This model can be used when there is a lack of foundation data, when the water demanded has mutation and when the fixed amount expression is very hard to establish, it assures certain degree of accuracy. This paper validates the practicability of the system by using an example, and serves as an important reference for regional water resources integrated programming and long-term water supply programming.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2008年第4期63-65,68,共4页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
关键词
工业需水
预测
系统动力学
分块预测
industrial water demand
prediction
system dynamic analysis
block prediction
