摘要
以贵州典型喀斯特地区清镇市为研究区,讨论其农用地和建设用地从2000-2004年的动态变化过程,并运用灰色动态预测模型,对研究区耕地、建设用地的发展趋势进行预测。结果发现：清镇市二级地类综合土地动态度为0.53%;从2010-2020年耕地面积年均递减率为1.12%,高于2000-2004年的年均递减率1.02%;建设用地年均增长率为5.36‰,与2000-2004年的年均增长率2.66‰相比增长1倍多,如建设用地以2.66‰的速度发展,与清镇市未来的经济发展需求不相适应,应加大其建设用地的配置力度。
This paper evaluated the dynamic changes in agricultural land and building land in the typical karst area of the Qingzhen of Guizhou province during 2000- 2004, and predicted their change tendencies in the future, applying gray dynamics model. Results showed that comprebensive land use dynamic degree in 2nd levels land types was 0.53% in Qingzhen. Returning cultivated land to forestland resulted in the decreasing of cultivated land and the increasing of foresfland. But this transformation mainly occurred within agricultural land. Based on the prediction of land use change, this paper found that, 2010- 2020, the area of cultivated land decreased by average 1.12% per year. Tnis number was slightly high, when compared with average 1.02% per year during 2000 - 2004. At the same time, the increasing of building land was mean 5.36‰ per year during 2010 - 2020, keeping an equal pace with 2.66‰ of the average annual rate from 2000 - 2004. Above-mentioned data proved that the construction speed of urbanization of Qingzhen was relatively slow, and the construction of urbanization of should be strengthened.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2008年第9期3809-3813,共5页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
基金
贵州大学引进人才科研项目
关键词
喀斯特区
土地利用
动态变化
预测
清镇
Karst areas
Land use
Dynamic change
Prediction
Qingzhen
