摘要
应用协整分析方法,建立了我国电力需求的长期均衡方程和短期误差修正模型,并进行G ranger因果检验,依据此模型与检验能较好地解释我国电力需求与国内生产总值、电价水平、经济结构、人口之间存在的长期均衡关系及短期变动的影响因素。
Based on co-integration theory and its associated Granger causality test, this paper establishes the power demand long-term equilibrium and short-term errors correction model. According to the proposed model, it can perfectly explain the long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation influence relationships among of power demand, GDP, electricity price, economic structure and population.
出处
《水电能源科学》
2007年第6期116-119,共4页
Water Resources and Power
关键词
电力需求
协整分析
误差修正模型
格兰杰因果检验
electric power demand
co-integration analysis
error correction model
granger causality test
