摘要
为揭示呼伦贝尔市农牧交错带农业种植结构的实质,利用贝叶斯准则及该区气象资料,主要作物大豆、玉米和小麦的种植面积及产量资料进行了分析。结果表明:①该区种植作物的经济效益大小排序为:大豆>玉米>小麦;②如果预报有干旱发生,则作物种植比例大小排序为:玉米>大豆>小麦;如果预报有洪涝或低温冷害发生,则作物种植比例大小排序为:大豆>玉米>小麦;③设计了两种在干旱气候年型下的作物种植比例最优方案,产值可分别增加3%和5%以上。
To get an insight into the planting structure of the agropastoral region, the planting area and yields of main crops such as soybeans, corn and wheat are analyzed in combination with the related meteorological data by means of Bayesian criteria. The results show that （1） according to the economical benefits, the planting proportion from large to small should be： soybean, corn, wheat. （2） If there will be droughts according to forecast, the planting proportion should be： corn, soybean, wheat; if there will be floods or low temperature （cold damage） according to forecast, the planting proportion should be： soybean, corn, wheat. Two optimal planting proportion schemes under the dry climatic condition are designed, by using which the output value can increase by 3 % and 5 % or more, respectively.
出处
《气象科技》
2007年第5期703-707,共5页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
呼伦贝尔市科技攻关项目"典型农牧交错带气候适应性分析及优化对策"(20050105)资助
关键词
贝叶斯准则
种植结构
农牧交错带
Bayesian criteria, planting structure, agropastoral region
