摘要
采用反距离权重法和普通克里格方法对26°～34°N，103°～115°E范围内2004年逐日降水量进行空间插值试验分析，分辨率为1km×1km。采用交叉检验方法和准确率方法对两种方法插值的总体效果及不同等级的降水插值效果进行综合对比。结果表明：两种方法插值效果近似，插值结果与实测值相关系数分别为0．83和0．82。但对日雨量较大的情况，两种方法插值效果均有所降低，相关系数为0．66和0．67。两种方法的实测值与插值结果的相关系数在不同季节非常接近，并且均以春季最大，其次为冬、秋季，夏季相关系数最小；通过采用平均误差、平均绝对误差和均方根3个指标衡量及不同等级雨量的插值准确率统计比较，普通克里格方法插值效果略好于反距离权重法。
High-resolution precipitation field is very useful in the study of precipitation-induced geological hazards. The quality of the precipitation field varies if different interpolation methods are used. In this study inverse distance weighting and ordinary Kriging methods are applied to interpolate daily precipitation of stations over 26°- 34°N, 103°-115°E into 1 km × 1 km grid. The interpolation results are then compared to indicate which method better represents the spatial pattern and intensity of precipitation. Results show that the two methods perform similarly well by their correlation coefficients of 0.83 and 0.82 between observed and interpolated precipitation in the cross validation test. When daily precipitation is equal to or greater than 10 mm, both methods are less efficient and the correlation is down to 0.66 and 0.67. The correlation coefficient, as an indicator of the interpolation quality, has a clear seasonal trend with a maximum in spring and a minimum in summer. From analysis to the accuracy of interpolation for heavier precipitation, both methods show unsatisfied results and Inverse distance weighting method with more error rate. The accuracy decrease from 80 % for precipitation exceeding 10 mm to 65 % for precipitation exceeding 25 mm, particular in rainstorm with above 50 mm precipitation, the accuracy is only 50 %. The observed precipitation is systematically underestimated by both methods and the interpolation quality gradually decreases for heavy precipitation. Generally, ordinary Kriging is better than inverse distance weighting. But the running time is a disadvantage when the ordinary Kriging method is applied into operational system, inverse distance weighting method may be substituted for it.
出处
《应用气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第5期732-736,共5页
Journal of Applied Meteorological Science
基金
国土资源部"三峡库区地质灾害强降水诱发因子的监测
预警研究"项目资助
关键词
日降水量
插值
反距离权重法
普通克里格方法
daily rainfall
interpolation
inverse distance weighting
ordinary Kriging
