摘要
本文首先选择了测度制造业结构趋同和经济增长趋同的方法,并测算了1982年到2003年长三角两省一市间制造业结构和经济增长的趋同程度。经单位根检验与协整检验,对两个时间序列进行了回归分析,揭示了制造业结构趋同和经济增长趋同之间的数量关系,并在格兰杰检验的基础上理清了二者的因果关系。基于向量自回归模型的脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析,对两个序列之间的动态影响进行了考查。结果表明,制造业的结构趋同与经济增长趋同之间存在密切的联系,这有助于人们加深对长三角制造业结构趋同问题的认识。
The methods that can measure the convergence of economic growth and the convergence of manufacturing structure are chosen. The degrees of the economic discrepancy and the homogeneity of manufacturing structure from 1982 to 2003 in Delta Area of Yangtze are calculated. After the unit root test and cointegration test, regression was performed and quantitative relation between two series was worked out. The Granger test opens out their causality and the dynamic correlations of two series are also analyzed by using the methods of impulse response and variance decomposition. The results showed that structural convergence and growth convergence have compact relation and the results can help to deepening the cognition of convergence of industrial structure in Delta Area of Yangtze.
出处
《产业经济研究》
2007年第5期66-73,共8页
Industrial Economics Research
基金
江苏技术师范学院引进人才项目基金(项目编号:KYY06032)
关键词
长三角
制造业
结构
增长
趋同
Delta Area of Yangtze
manufacturing
structure
growth
convergence
