摘要
徐州大屯中心区1988年建立了地面沉降观测系统,2005年最大累计沉降量达到600 mm,累计沉降量大于100 mm的地区面积达到11.57 km2。本文根据近20年的沉降观测数据分析了中心区地面沉降的时空分布特征,并采用灰色模型方法,对地面沉降趋势进行了预测,结果表明到2010年最大累计沉降量将达到753 mm,累计沉降量大于100 mm的地区将达到32.86 km2,对中心区的建筑、地下管网将造成较大威胁,应尽快采取防治措施。
Land subsidence in Datun central area has been systemically monitored since 1988. The maximal depth of subsidence was up to 600 mm and the subsiding area where the depth is over 100 mm has reached 11.57 km^2 in 2005. Based on the survey data of 20 years the spatio-temporal evolution of subsidence was analyzed. A grey model for the subsidence prediction was established. The prediction results show that the maximal depth of subsidence will be 753 mm in the year of 2010, and the area over 100 mm deep will be 32.86 km^2. It will be harmful to the building and underground pipe lines, and some control measures must be taken as soon as possible.
出处
《地质灾害与环境保护》
2007年第3期11-13,共3页
Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation
关键词
地面沉降
灰色模型
预测
大屯中心区
land subsidence
grey model
forecast
Datun central area
