摘要
根据社会存在用电量不确定因素较多,变化趋势较为明显的特点,基于灰系统理论建立灰模型(GreyModel,GM)对用电量进行灰预测;用新信息替代旧信息构造了新息GM(1,1)模型,并及时反映目标值的时变特性,更好地考虑实际数据的影响。算例表明:模型的置信度达到99.15%,而误差仅为2.96%,说明用GM(1,1)模型进行用电量预测是有效的。
There are many uncertain factors for electricity consumption with the characteristic of obvious changing tendency.Grey prediction for electricity consumption is carried out by using Grey Model(GM) based on Grey Theory.This GM(1,1) model depends on new information theory which replaces old information by new information and reflects the character of the target value with the changing of time in time.It takes account the effect of actual data.Case study shows that model's confidence factor can achieve 99.15%,and error value is only 2.96%.Therefore it is an efficient model for electricity consumption prediction.
出处
《西华大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2007年第1期77-78,共2页
Journal of Xihua University:Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金(编号:50575153)
西华大学两重建设项目(编号:SBZD0501-3)
西华大学人才培养课题(编号:04226135)资助
关键词
灰预测
用电量
GM(1
1)模型
灰理论
grey prediction
electricity consumption
GM(1,1) model
grey theory
