摘要
我国在经济转轨过程中,汇率体制改革和政策调整会使人民币汇率的数据生成过程发生结构突变。在发展中国家均衡实际汇率模型的基础上,建立了基于结构突变的人民币均衡实际汇率模型,通过考察国际收支差额与汇率失调的关系,检验了测算结果的准确性。实证结果显示,在考虑结构突变的情况下,多数基本经济要素变量与人民币实际有效汇率存在显著的长期均衡关系,人民币汇率在2002年以后确实存在一定程度的低估。现实汇率的失调对国际收支平衡的影响非常显著。
Under the influence of adjustment of our economic policy and inflation, the Data Generating Process （DGP） of RMB real effective exchange rates may change its structure during the course of commercial activities in China. A co-integration-model of the equilibrium real exchange rate of RMB is proposed based on the structure changes of the DGP of RMB, and its validation is shown by analyzing the relation between the balance of payments and the maladjusted exchange rate. The result indicates that an obvious relationship exists between many fundamental variables and RMB real effective exchange rates, and the RMB real effective exchange rate has been under-valued in some degrees since 2002. The misalignment of exchange rate has a marked influence on the balance of payments in China.
出处
《科技导报》
CAS
CSCD
2007年第3期56-63,共8页
Science & Technology Review
关键词
结构突变
均衡汇率
汇率失调
structural change
equilibrium real exchange rate
misalignment of exchange rate
